Road to the Kentucky Derby: Forte Remains Solid Favorite as Field Solidifies

We’re at present quatern weeks out from the KY Derby, and with the last trinity major prep races occurring Saturday, we now experience a evenhandedly all the way picture of who testament follow running for the roses on May 6.

Despite exciting wins by a geminate of favorites, Tapit Trice inward the Blue Grass Stakes and Practical Move in the Santa Anita Derby, neither of them looked as impressive sufficiency to bump Forte from the pallium of presumptive Bluegrass State Derby favorite. (The other Derby prep, the Sir Henry Joseph Wood Memorial, featured 59-1 stab Lord Miles edging favourite Hit Billie Jean King for the disconcert win.)

Honestly, it was sledding to make a lot for that yet to follow considered. Assuming he stays healthy, Forte testament likely live a warm betting quality as the horses head to the starting gate at John Churchill Downs.

All the Lord Todd Pletcher-trained colt has done to garner that is win quintet consecutive races. Not only when feature they been stratified stakes wins, but that streak includes IV Grade 1 wins. The shoemaker's last came shoemaker's last weekend inwards the FL Derby inwards stirring forge as Forte rallied from 5th place and comfortably exterior inward stretch along to mark the victory.

Pletcher will really come in into Louisville with trinity contenders. Besides Forte, he also trains Tapit Trice and Kingsbarns, an undefeated colt who won the Pelican State Derby II weeks ago.

“We’re blessed,” Pletcher told reporters at Keeneland Sat after Tapit Trice’s victory. “We’ve had a sound spring, and now we got to hopefully experience another well(p) foursome weeks.”

The Case for Forte

Favorites have had a minuscule fleck of a wry magical spell lately in the Derby. The finally to win was Triple Crown winner Justify in 2018, but the bettors’ choices get add up shut inwards recent years, with Epicenter, cobbler's last year’s favorite, finishing second.

What I believe helps Forte’s vitrine this year is how he won the Everglade State Derby.  He had an exterior brand – 11th out of 12 – and found himself stuck inward traffic for to the highest degree of the run and looked to be come out of contention when he finally made his move. Those conditions are near as come together as you canful have to a KY Derby environment, where Forte could feel himself battling 19 other competitors.

Pletcher had said the major prep race at Gulfstream Park would wait on as a just try for his prized colt. The trainer came aside proud of(p) that Forte’s topper constituent of the 1-1/8 mil Everglade State Derby was the last sixteenth, which would point he’d do comfortably in the 1-1/4 mi Bluegrass State Derby.

What was impressive… was when he did micturate the lead, he genial of pricked his ears again which we’ve seen him get along a keep down of times,” Pletcher said. “It kind of makes you believe there’s a little more inwards the tankful there.”

After Saturday’s races, Circa Sports inwards Las Vegas kept Forte as favorite, with odds of +315, substance a $100 wager would mesh $315.  Tapit Trice and Practice Move are next at +550 each, and Verifying, who lost past a neck to Tapit Trice Saturday, and Kingsbarns are +950.

NEW: @CircaSports just posted its modish Kentucky Derby futures after today's prep races.

Forte remains the convincing favorite at +315 (Bet $100 to nett $315), with Tapit Trice and Practical Move the co-second prize at +550.

Verifying and Louisiana Derby victor Kingsbarns +950 pic.twitter.com/UYjif1nFIW

— Steve Bittenbender (@CasinoOrgSteveB) April 8, 2023

If Not Forte, Then…

With upwards to 20 horses inwards the field, the Kentucky Derby is definitely non a established gymnastic horse race, and with that big a field, it does present tense bettors with opportunities for value.

If you’re sounding for an intriguing long dig possibility, i horse to turn over is Two Phil’s, who won the Jeff Ruby Steaks II weeks agone at Turfway Park. Turfway, a Churchill Downs caterpillar tread inward Florence, KY, has a synthetic substance tapeta track, which is different from the dirt runway at Churchill.

But Two Phil’s won at Sir Winston Leonard Spenser Churchill endure twelvemonth on a sloppy track.

If there’s I thing that’s uniform almost Louisville inwards May, it’s that the weather is anything but consistent. It canful follow 80 and sunny or depressed and 50 or anywhere inbetween. Sometimes still in the same week. Over the last septet Derby days, it’s rained on five. However, only if II of those led to sloppy track ratings, the lowest coming inward 2019.

“I’m hoping it rains,” trainer Larry Rivelli told reporters after the Jeff Ruby.

So, that’s something to donjon inward brain should the clouds turning morose on May 7. Two Phil’s could be your atomic number 47 lining.

At Circa, Two Phil’s Derby futures odds are +3000.

Who Will Run inwards the Bluegrass State Derby

The field of force for the Derby is based on points horses cumulate inwards prep races. Saturday’s races to each one awarded 100 points to the winner, with the runners up getting 40, the horses inward thirdly getting 30, and the horses finishing fourth receiving 20.

Those with the 18 highest pointedness totals are guaranteed tell apart inward the race, with slots also available for horses inward Japan and Europe. If an owner withdraws a qualifying Equus caballus from contention, the horse with the next highest tally of points becomes eligible.

Churchill Downs Senior Director of Communications Darren Will Rogers tweeted the updated head totals Sabbatum evening.

An betimes appear at the updated Road to the @KentuckyDerby Leaderboard followers the Blue Grass, Santa Anita Derby and Mrs. Henry Wood Memorial. Final PDF update to follow after Santa Anita Oaks (8:24 pm ET). pic.twitter.com/K3aHr9jwsW

— Churchill Downs PR (@DerbyMedia) April 8, 2023

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