Buffalo Bills Should Clobber Miami Dolphins, But…
Anybody who watched the Miami Dolphins battle against the obnoxiously tactless New House of York Jets in conclusion weekend should wait i thing inward Sunday’s first-class honours degree NFL playoff game: The Buffalo Bills to baste the Miami Dolphins.
The spread head of 13 (it opened at Buffalo -9) is past far the biggest on the table on wild card weekend. But and then there is this:
The Bills lost only trinity games this season, and unity of those was against Miami. What’s more, when the teams played inwards Buffalo shoemaker's last month and everyone thought the snowfall and the coldness would weakened the Dolphins, the final musical score ended upwardly existence 32-29, as Buffalo won with a force field end on the net play.
Tua Tagovailoa has been ruled out, as he remains inwards the NFL’s concussion protocol, and third-stringer Skylar Homer A. Thompson testament erstwhile over again be Miami’s starter. Count Rumford is a rookie, but no ordinary bicycle rookie. He is 25 years old, having spent 5 years at Kansas River State because of an injury. And this will follow his 4th successive start.
He is no more Josh Allen. But he had two paint passes to Jaylen Waddle on the aim that led to Miami’s game-winning field of view end last week that clinched a playoff berth. Waddle had fin receptions endure Sunday, and it would seem he is Thompson’s favorite target. Remember that if you are building a parlay.
Skylar Benjamin Thompson showing sour the rich ball to Jaylen Waddle. #FinsUp
: #MINvsMIA on FOX
: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/cuelUmFent pic.twitter.com/Vam1M7Vmlr
— NFL (@NFL) October 16, 2022
So Is Miami Being Undervalued In This Game?
Well, look: The Bills are the (+400) second quality behindhand KS City (+350) to live the last squad standing inwards Glendale, Arizona when the Super Bowl is complete, spell Miami is +6000. Only the Seattle Seahawks get thirster odds, +7000.
So the safe bet is Buffalo moneyline. But incredibly, DraftKings Sportsbook is seeing more grip existence placed on Buffalo -13 (87 % of bets) than on Buffalo ML (86 % of bets). And that is understandable for a couple up of reasons:
- Sports gaming is non in time sound in Florida, so Dolphins fans inward the Sunshine State are not wagering at that book.
- Buffalo moneyline pays -850, which means a $100 play returns $111.76. There are folks who testament submit a nearly 12% proceeds any daytime of the week. But null is guaranteed inward football or in life, excluding US Treasury obligations Bonds, which are paying 4.83% if you interlace your money upwards for half a dozen months.
- Most of those moneyline bets are likely part of multi-game parlays, so read them with a grain of salt.
A amend play might be stocking up on gas-powered stoves before the fun-haters outlaw them, but we digress.
Look, the Bills are the improve team. Period. Miami lost V in a row before eking out last-place week’s 11-6 victory o'er the Jets. And that gritty was tied 6-6 with 18 seconds remaining before Jason Sanders made his third field of operations goal. Yes, the Jets hold a nice immature defensive measure and an offensive so forged that they just fired their offensive coordinator. But no more TDs for Miami inwards a do-or-die gamy at home?
The Bills had deuce kickoff return TDs cobbler's last weekend against New England and got trinity TD passes from Allen, 1 for each one for receivers Stefon Diggs, John the Divine Brown and Dawson Knox. They had 327 sum up violative yards and would hold had more if not for deuce lost fumbles. Tagovailoa threw for 234 yards the cobbler's last time these teams met, but NFL and team doctors feature ruled him out, and computer backup Teddy Bridgewater is allay recovering from a unkept pinkie.
Not having Tua was what made the demarcation go so much.
“He, himself, is learning that he needs to take heed to the advice of doctors and medical professionals. He understands the rigor of doing that, so there’s a little flake of things that he can’t control,” Miami handler Mike McDaniel said. “He was an unbelievable part of the intact season. i conceive octet of our wins were as a termination of him playing quarterback, among the team, and that did non come up because it was just gifted. That was a lot of work and preparation, so it’s really frustrating, a great deal as a lot of things inwards life-time and football are.”
#Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is now inwards the NFL’s concussion protocol.
Here is a frolic vs the Packers that may get caused for concern
— TWSN (@TWSN___) December 26, 2022
So What is the Best Wagering Strategy?
Aside from ordination as many wings as possible and inviting o'er your crony who is a free-enterprise(a) eater and having a rigged Buffalo wing eating contest?
Well, Diggs was third inward the NFL among receivers with 11 TD receptions, and we told you a hebdomad agone that he was overdue for at least one. His cobbler's last multi-TD biz came in Week 2 against the Titans, when it was relieve warm up in Buffalo. Which testament not be the instance Sunday, as the calculate calls for 40% chance of snow showers and winds gusting at 10-15 mph inward Orchard Park, NY.
As an anytime TD scorer, Diggs is only -130. But for two or more he is +450, and for trinity or more he is +1800. Diggs to be an anytime TD scorer and the Bills to win is a -105 wager, which circles us support to savings bonds, which we make non want to do.
The last clip the Bills played inward the snow was their endure gamey against the Dolphins, so let’s looking at at that place for guidance. And let’s recall that the calculate was damage that mean solar day and the snow did non bug out falling until the 4th quarter. Of Buffalo’s 69 violative plays, 50 mired Gracie pass or rushing. He was the Bills’ leading run aground weight gainer with 77 yards on 10 carries.
DraftKings has an over/under rushing yardage line of 50.5 for Allen Stewart Konigsberg and has non in time posted an alternate rushing yardage line. But you will see that prior to Sunday, the guy cable has rushed for 70 or more yards cinque times and has had at to the lowest degree 10 runs inward troika of the last cinque games (not including the Mon Night fiasco at Cincinnati).
One to a greater extent thing to watch: The line at octad of the 9 New York sportsbooks is 13. FanDuel has moved it to 13 1/2, and we could regard 14 or 14 1/2 by the time send-off arrives. So this is one of the few instances where we devote counsel, and we hereby notify Buffalo distribute bettors to wager early.
And remember: What looks similar a great play on a Thursday put up terminal upwardly existence a dud. Everyone has their have take, so good luck.
Brother you are perfectly clueless. This is called “reverse business line movement” and what it usually means is that the books are seeing “sharps” wager the dolphins so still though to the highest degree of the bets are on the Bills, the line of business is moving the wrong direction. https://t.co/EWiDrtsViK
— Brian (@BrianMC630) January 11, 2023
dy who watched the Miami Dolphins battle against the offensively tactless New York Jets last-place weekend should anticipate i thing inward Sunday’s first off NFL playoff game: The Buffalo Bills to baste the Miami Dolphins.
The spreading of 13 (it opened at Buffalo -9) is by far the biggest on the get on on state of nature identity card weekend. But then there is this:
The Bills missed only ternion games this season, and one of those was against Miami. What’s more, when the teams played inwards Buffalo cobbler's last month and everyone thought the snow and the coldness would offend the Dolphins, the final nock ended upwards being 32-29, as Buffalo won with a theatre end on the net play.
Tua Tagovailoa has been ruled out, as he remains inward the NFL’s concussion protocol, and third-stringer Skylar Homer A. Thompson will one time over again live Miami’s starter. Thompson is a rookie, but no ordinary rookie. He is 25 years old, having spent v years at Kansas River State because of an injury. And this testament follow his quaternary sequent start.
He is no Josh Allen. But he had 2 tonality passes to Jaylen Waddle on the ride that led to Miami’s game-winning line of business goal finally calendar week that clinched a playoff berth. Waddle had V receptions cobbler's last Sunday, and it would seem he is Thompson’s favorite target. Remember that if you are edifice a parlay.
Skylar Benjamin Thompson showing cancelled the rich globe to Jaylen Waddle. #FinsUp
: #MINvsMIA on FOX
: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/cuelUmFent pic.twitter.com/Vam1M7Vmlr
— NFL (@NFL) October 16, 2022
So Is Miami Being Undervalued In This Game?
Well, look: The Bills are the (+400) secondly quality in arrears Kansas City (+350) to live the last team up standing in Glendale, Arizona when the Super Bowl is complete, spell Miami is +6000. Only the Seattle Seahawks feature longer odds, +7000.
So the safe bet is Buffalo moneyline. But incredibly, DraftKings Sportsbook is seeing to a greater extent handgrip existence placed on Buffalo -13 (87 % of bets) than on Buffalo ML (86 % of bets). And that is understandable for a distich of reasons:
- Sports play is non yet legal in Florida, so Dolphins fans inward the Sunshine State are non wagering at that book.
- Buffalo moneyline pays -850, which means a $100 play returns $111.76. There are folks who testament read a nearly 12% proceeds any twenty-four hour period of the week. But cypher is guaranteed inwards football game or inwards life, excluding US First Lord of the Treasury Bonds, which are paying 4.83% if you curl your money upwards for sextuplet months.
- Most of those moneyline bets are in all probability division of multi-game parlays, so take them with a grain of salt.
A amend bet mightiness follow stocking up on gas-powered stoves before the fun-haters illegalize them, but we digress.
Look, the Bills are the better team. Period. Miami missed pentad inwards a row before eking out endure week’s 11-6 triumph o'er the Jets. And that game was fastened 6-6 with 18 seconds remaining before Jason Sanders made his third theater of operations goal. Yes, the Jets get a skillful youth defending team and an offensive so forged that they just now fired their violative coordinator. But no more TDs for Miami inwards a do-or-die game at home?
The Bills had 2 kickoff paying back TDs endure weekend against New England and got leash TD passes from Allen, ane to each one for receivers Stefon Diggs, St. John the Apostle Robert Brown and Dawson Knox. They had 327 tot violative yards and would have got had to a greater extent if not for ii lost fumbles. Tagovailoa threw for 234 yards the last-place clip these teams met, but NFL and team doctors experience ruled him out, and backup Teddy Bridgewater is noneffervescent recovering from a broken in pinkie.
Not having Tua was what made the contrast displace so much.
“He, himself, is learning that he needs to take heed to the advice of doctors and medical professionals. He understands the stiffness of doing that, so there’s a little chip of things that he can’t control,” Miami coach-and-four Mike McDaniel said. “He was an unbelievable section of the intact season. i opine octonary of our wins were as a final result of him playing quarterback, among the team, and that did non come in because it was simply gifted. That was a lot of piece of work and preparation, so it’s really frustrating, often as a lot of things in life-time and football are.”
#Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is at present in the NFL’s concussion protocol.
Here is a recreate vs the Packers that may have caused for concern
— TWSN (@TWSN___) December 26, 2022
So What is the Best Wagering Strategy?
Aside from ordering as many wings as possible and inviting o'er your crony who is a competitory feeder and having a rigged Buffalo offstage eating contest?
Well, Diggs was thirdly inwards the NFL among receivers with 11 TD receptions, and we told you a calendar week ago that he was overdue for at to the lowest degree one. His utmost multi-TD gamy came inward Week 2 against the Titans, when it was relieve warm in Buffalo. Which will non live the case Sunday, as the forecast calls for 40% chance of snow showers and winds gusting at 10-15 mph inwards Orchard Park, NY.
As an anytime TD scorer, Diggs is only -130. But for II or more he is +450, and for ternary or to a greater extent he is +1800. Diggs to be an anytime TD scorer and the Bills to win is a -105 wager, which circles us plump for to nest egg bonds, which we make non want to do.
The cobbler's last time the Bills played in the snowfall was their in conclusion gritty against the Dolphins, so let’s looking there for guidance. And let’s remember that the forecast was wrongfulness that solar day and the snow did not take up falling until the fourth quarter. Of Buffalo’s 69 offensive plays, 50 involved Woody Allen passage or rushing. He was the Bills’ leading ground full gainer with 77 yards on 10 carries.
DraftKings has an over/under rushing yardage run along of 50.5 for Allen Stewart Konigsberg and has non in time posted an alternative rushing yardage line. But you testament view that prior to Sunday, the hombre has rushed for 70 or more yards pentad times and has had at least 10 runs inward troika of the finally cinque games (not including the Monday Night fiasco at Cincinnati).
One to a greater extent thing to watch: The line of products at octonary of the 9 New House of York sportsbooks is 13. FanDuel has moved it to 13 1/2, and we could assure 14 or 14 1/2 by the time start-off arrives. So this is I of the few instances where we consecrate counsel, and we herewith notify Buffalo scatter bettors to wager early.
And remember: What looks same a great bet on a Thursday tin can finish upwards existence a dud. Everyone has their own take, so right luck.
Brother you are dead clueless. This is called “reverse run along movement” and what it usually way is that the books are seeing “sharps” play the dolphins so even though to the highest degree of the bets are on the Bills, the line is moving the wrongfulness direction. https://t.co/EWiDrtsViK
— Brian (@BrianMC630) January 11, 2023
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